http://www.tonyawards.com/en_US/nominees/winners.html TV PREVIEW Glitter and Glitz: The 2004 Tony Awards A Guide to the Will Wins and Shoulda Wons By Fred Choi Staff Writer It's that time of year again, when theater buffs all over the world tune into the Tony Awards, Broadway's yearly salute to New York City's most expensive, if not highest quality, theater. It's no surprise that the industry which has become a glut of commercialist twaddle has reached new levels of "compromise" in its attempts to attract an audience. Thus the televised ceremony this Sunday on CBS (8-11 p.m. EST) will be hosted by that genial but bland Broadway-newcomer-with-the-Hollywood-visibility-and-100-watt-smile Hugh Jackman for the second year in a row and feature such entertainers as wholly unconnected with Broadway as Mary J. Blige or as tenuously as Nicole Kidman. Still, the show, the culmination of a year's worth of anticipation, will no doubt provide musical fans and fanatics a more or less satisfactory evening of glitz and a glimpse or two of their favorite shows and theater artists. As is the case with most high-profile awards, the people who will win and those who should win are not always the same, especially in the case of the Tonys where the majority of the voters are producers. Still, unlike some in recent memory, this year offers up more than a few unpredictable races that will have more than a few theater-philes biting their nails for several weeks. So, it's time to break out the pencils and start setting up those office betting pools. Here's the Tech's guide to the 2004 Tonys to help you figure out the odds. Best Musical and Best Revival of a Musical First off, there are some clear Tony winners. Wicked, the sellout hit that focuses on the lives of the Wicked Witch of the West and Glinda the Good Witch of Oz, is a shoo-in to win the award for Best Musical over Avenue Q, a Sesame Street-like musical with an adult twist featuring alcoholic and depressed puppets and puppeteers; The Boy From Oz, the biographical musical on the life of some Australian entertainer named Peter Allen that your parents might remember; and Caroline, or Change, a musical about a black maid and the white family she works for in the South in the 1960's and written by no less than Tony Kushner (of Angels in America fame). Although a clear commercial success, Wicked is certainly not Shakespeare, but the only musical among its competitors that has any weight is Caroline, or Change, and that show is too uneven to stand up against the bubbly and fun Wicked. The award for Best Revival of a Musical will undoubtedly go to Sondheim and Weidman's Assassins, the musical about the men and women who have attempted to assassinate the American President. The show was, as is Sondheim's habit, years ahead of its time when first presented Off-Broadway in 1991 during the time of the Persian Gulf War, but it has found a much more attentive audience this season. The show is without a doubt certainly the most deserving of the award in recent years, and towers over its competitors Big River (based on Mark Twain's Adventures of Huckleberry Finn), Fiddler on the Roof, and Leonard Bernstein's Wonderful Town. Creative Team and Best Direction of a Musical Awards Although this year's Best Musical Award will go to Wicked, it is not certain likely to sweep all of the creative team and design awards. Winnie Holzman's adaptation for Wicked faces the biggest competition for Best Book of a Musical from the Tony Kushner's book for Caroline, or Change. Likewise, Wicked's Stephen Schwartz could easily get ousted by Jeanine Tesori's score for Caroline, despite its derivative nature. It should be noted that had Sondheim's superlative score or Weidman's book for Assassins been eligible it would have easily outshone all of the competition. However the Tony committee ruled that the show was considered "classic" and not "new", since it was written in 1991 and since then has been performed in non-Broadway theaters worldwide. The award for Best Direction of a Musical will be between Joe Mantello for Assassins (who was noticeably not nominated for Wicked which he also directed), and George C. Wolfe for Caroline, or Change. The award for Best Choreography will likely go to director-choreographer Kathleen Marshall's work for the revival of Wonderful Town despite being very straightforward. Design Awards The other design awards (Orchestrations, Scenic, Costume, and Lighting, all of which are going to be presented before the actual broadcast) are as usual more unpredictable than most. Michael Starobin should win for his Best Orchestrations for his masterful evocation of Americana in Assassins. Long-time theater veteran Eugene Lee has a good chance of winning for Best Scenic Design for his work on Wicked (although Robert Brill's design for Assassins is competitive). Likewise Susan Hilferty is likely to win for Best Costume Design for Wicked, and Jules Fisher and Peggy Eishenhauer may win for Best Lighting Design for Assassins. There is some difficulty in predicting the creative team and design winners, but it's probable that, as with the other categories, the yawn-inducing revival of Fiddler on the Roof and the ill-conceived and short-lived musical about the life of Boy George entitled Taboo will be completely shut out of the Tonys. Bombay Dreams, the splashy but fluffy Bollywood-style import from London, and Henry IV may be competitive for some of the design categories and Bombay Dreams is a longshot to win for Best Choreography, but Wicked should have enough momentum to pick up more than a few of them. Play Awards The awards for plays often get overlooked in favor of their splashier cousins the musicals, but there are some interesting races. Although Nilo Cruz' Anna in the Tropics, a play centered on a cigar factory in Florida in 1929, won the Pulitzer Prize in 2003, it is not likely to win the Tony for Best Play. The biggest competitors for the award are the 2004 Pulitzer Prize-winner, I Am My Own Wife by Doug Wright and Frozen by Bryony Lavery. I Am My Own Wife, a gripping story of a German transvestite's life from World War II on, is a favorite to win, but it may be slightly hurt by the fact that it is a one-man show. Frozen, a three-person psychological drama that focuses on a serial killer, the mother of one of his victims, and an American criminologist/psychiatrist, opened late in the season to rave reviews. The fourth nominee, The Retreat From Moscow by William Nicholson, was yet another play about a failing marriage that opened and closed without much of a ripple despite its starry cast (John Lithgow, Eileen Atkins, and Ben Chaplin). The award for Best Revival of a Play and Best Direction of a Play will likely go to Henry IV and its director Jack O'Brien, more out of default than for any real sparks. The revival was competent, but at least it was more interesting than King Lear, Tom Stoppard's dull and far too wordy Jumpers, and Lorraine Hansberry's by now familiar A Raisin in the Sun. (The latter has proven to be surprisngly popular, no doubt in part due to the addition of P. Diddy to the cast who, unsurprisngly, was the only one in the four-person cast not nominated for an acting award). Best Performance in a Play Awards Three time Tony Award-winner, Audra McDonald, the queen of Best Featured Actress Tonys and a magnetic presence in any art form, is a favorite to win the award for Featured Actress in a Play for A Raisin in the Sun. Ned Beatty from Cat on a Hot Tin Roof would have been the easy pick for Featured Actor in a Play but he was unjustly snubbed for his candid remarks slighting his amateurish co-stars Ashley Judd and Jason Patric. Instead the award may go to Aidan Gillen for The Caretaker or Brian F. O'Byrne for Frozen. Jefferson Mays' star-making turn in the one-man show I Am My Own Wife is a favorite for Leading Actor in a Play, although he may face some competition from the more famous Kevin Kline, whose fatsuit-clad performance as Falstaff in Henry IV was much lauded. It is a real shame that Christopher Plummer is not likely to win for his widely-praised take on one of the world's greatest tragic roles, Shakespeare's King Lear. The award for Leading Actress in a Play is a complete toss-up. Phylicia Rashad, of The Cosby Show fame, may win for A Raisin in the Sun, as may Eileen Atkins for The Retreat From Moscow. Likewise, Viola Davis may win for her role as a black seamstress in Intimate Apparel, or Swoosie Kurtz for her role in Frozen. Best Performance in a Musical Awards Without a doubt the award for Leading Actor in a Musical will go to Hugh Jackman who single-handedly saves the otherwise worthless musical The Boy From Oz. The award for Leading Actress in a Musical is much more debatable. Like Jackman, the two-time Tony award winner radiant Donna Murphy single-handedly saves the entertaining but slight revival of Wonderful Town, but she faces stiff competition from Wicked's two stars, the bubbly, blonde, somewhat shrill Broadway darling Kristin Chenoweth and the Rent alumna Idina Menzel. Tonya Pinkins is the dark horse nominee for Caroline, or Change. The Featured Actor Awards take a bit of guesswork as well. Michael Cerveris may win for his performance as John Wilkes Booth in Assassins. Beth Fowler may win for her role as Peter Allen's mother in The Boy From Oz, as may long-time not-quite-a-diva Karen Ziemba in the short-lived, Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers' wannabe musical Never Gonna Dance. Phew! Whether or not your familiar with the shows, the Tonys are always fun to watch, as it features excerpts from the Best Musical and Best Revival of a Musical nominees and no doubt will include some surprise wins, some funny speeches, and some hideous and some eye-popping award-show fashion. Whether anything will top the kiss shared between the excited Best Book of a Musical winners, partners Mark O'Donnell and Thomas Meehan for Hairspray, from last year's Tonys, well, you'll just have to tune in to see. http://www.nytimes.com/ref/theater/TONY-NOMS.html Best Play Anna in the Tropics * Frozen (*) I Am My Own Wife The Retreat From Moscow Best Musical Avenue Q The Boy From Oz (*) Caroline, or Change * Wicked Best Book of a Musical Wicked * Caroline, or Change The Boy From Oz Avenue Q Best Original Score Taboo (*) Avenue Q * Wicked Caroline, or Change Best Revival of a Play * Henry IV Jumpers (*) King Lear A Raisin in the Sun Best Revival of a Musical * Assassins Big River Fiddler on the Roof (*) Wonderful Town Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play Simon Russell Beale, Jumpers (*) Kevin Kline, Henry IV Frank Langella, Match (*) Jefferson Mays, I Am My Own Wife * Christopher Plummer, King Lear Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play Eileen Atkins, The Retreat From Moscow Tovah Feldshuh, Golda's Balcony Anne Heche, Twentieth Century * Swoosie Kurtz, Frozen Phylicia Rashad, A Raisin in the Sun Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical Hunter Foster, Little Shop of Horrors * Hugh Jackman, The Boy From Oz Alfred Molina, Fiddler on the Roof Euan Morton, Taboo John Tartaglia, Avenue Q Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical * Kristin Chenoweth, Wicked Stephanie D'Abruzzo, Avenue Q Idina Menzel, Wicked (*) Donna Murphy, Wonderful Town Tonya Pinkins, Caroline, or Change Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play Tom Aldredge, Twentieth Century Ben Chaplin, The Retreat From Moscow Aidan Gillen, The Caretaker Omar Metwally, Sixteen Wounded Brian F. O'Byrne, Frozen Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play Essie Davis, Jumpers Sanaa Lathan, A Raisin in the Sun Margo Martindale, Cat on a Hot Tin Roof * Audra McDonald, A Raisin in the Sun Daphne Rubin-Vega, Anna in the Tropics Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical John Cariani, Fiddler on the Roof Michael Cerveris, Assassins Raul Esparza, Taboo Michael McElroy, Big River * Dennis O'Hare, Assassins Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical * Beth Fowler, The Boy From Oz Isabel Keating, The Boy From Oz Anika Noni Rose, Caroline, or Change Jennifer Westfeldt, Wonderful Town Karen Ziemba, Never Gonna Dance Best Scenic Design (*) Assassins Henry IV * Wicked Fiddler on the Roof Best Costume Design Henry IV * Wicked Taboo (*) Bombay Dreams Best Lighting Design * Assassins Fiddler on the Roof * Henry IV Wicked Best Direction of a Play Doug Hughes, Frozen Moisés Kaufman, I Am My Own Wife David Leveaux, Jumpers Jack O'Brien, Henry IV Best Direction of a Musical * Joe Mantello, Assassins Kathleen Marshall, Wonderful Town Jason Moore, Avenue Q * George C. Wolfe, Caroline, or Change Best Choreography (*) Wicked Wonderful Town Never Gonna Dance * Bombay Dreams Best Orchestrations Bombay Dreams (*) Wicked Fiddler on the Roof * Assassins http://www.playbill.com/news/article/85936.html Golda's Balcony and Avenue Q were deemed ineligible as they were considered for last year's Off-Broadway awards. The 2003-2004 Outer Critics Circle Awards are as follows (winners are denoted by an asterisk* and in bold): OUTSTANDING BROADWAY PLAY Anna in the Tropics *I Am My Own Wife Match Sixteen Wounded OUTSTANDING BROADWAY MUSICAL Bombay Dreams The Boy From Oz Caroline, or Change *Wicked OUTSTANDING OFF-BROADWAY PLAY The Beard of Avon Bug Frozen *Intimate Apparel Well OUTSTANDING OFF-BROADWAY MUSICAL(tie) Fame on 42nd Street *Johnny Guitar *The Thing About Men OUTSTANDING REVIVAL OF A PLAY The Caretaker *Henry IV Jumpers A Raisin in the Sun Sly Fox OUTSTANDING REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL Assassins Fiddler on the Roof Little Shop of Horrors *Wonderful Town OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A PLAY Simon Russell Beale, Jumpers Kevin Kline, Henry IV *Frank Langella, Match Brían F. O'Byrne, Frozen Richard Thomas, The Stendhal Syndrome OUTSTANDING ACTRESS IN A PLAY *Eileen Atkins, The Retreat From Moscow Zilah Mendoza, Living Out Viola Davis, Intimate Apparel Swoosie Kurtz, Frozen Phylicia Rashad, A Raisin in the Sun OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL Gregg Edelman, Wonderful Town Hunter Foster, Little Shop of Horrors *Hugh Jackman, The Boy From Oz Alfred Molina, Fiddler on the Roof Euan Morton, Taboo OUTSTANDING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL Kerry Butler, Little Shop of Horrors Kristin Chenoweth, Wicked Idina Menzel, Wicked *Donna Murphy, Wonderful Town Tonya Pinkins, Caroline, or Change OUTSTANDING FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY René Auberjonois, Sly Fox *Ned Beatty, Cat on a Hot Tin Roof Teagle F. Bougere, A Raisin in the Sun Aidan Gillen, The Caretaker Omar Metwally, Sixteen Wounded OUTSTANDING FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY Julie Halston, Twentieth Century Jayne Houdyshell, Well Margo Martindale, Cat on a Hot Tin Roof Jan Maxwell, Sixteen Wounded *Audra McDonald, A Raisin in the Sun OUTSTANDING FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL(tie) *John Cariani, Fiddler on the Roof *Michael Cerveris, Assassins Mitchell David Federan, The Boy From Oz Sriram Ganesan, Bombay Dreams Joel Grey, Wicked OUTSTANDING FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL Ayesha Dharker, Bombay Dreams Randy Graff, Fiddler on the Roof Isabel Keating, The Boy From Oz Carole Shelley, Wicked *Karen Ziemba, Never Gonna Dance OUTSTANDING SOLO PERFORMANCE Sarah Jones, Bridge & Tunnel *Jefferson Mays, I Am My Own Wife Martin Moran, The Tricky Part Angelica Torn, Edge OUTSTANDING DIRECTION OF A PLAY Doug Hughes, Frozen Moisés Kaufman, I Am My Own Wife *Jack O'Brien, Henry IV Daniel Sullivan, Intimate Apparel OUTSTANDING DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL David Leveaux, Fiddler on the Roof *Joe Mantello, Wicked Kathleen Marshall, Wonderful Town George C. Wolfe, Caroline, or Change OUTSTANDING CHOREOGRAPHY Wayne Cilento, Wicked *Kathleen Marshall, Wonderful Town Joey McKneely, The Boy From Oz Jerry Mitchell, Never Gonna Dance Anthony Van Laast and Farah Kahn, Bombay Dreams OUTSTANDING SET DESIGN John Lee Beatty, Twentieth Century Ralph Funicello, Henry IV *Eugene Lee, Wicked Vicki Mortimer, Jumpers OUTSTANDING COSTUME DESIGN Jess Goldstein, Henry IV *Susan Hilferty, Wicked Mike Nicholls & Bobby Pearce, Taboo Catherine Zuber, Intimate Apparel OUTSTANDING LIGHTING DESIGN *Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer, Assassins David Lander, I Am My Own Wife Brian MacDevitt, Fiddler on the Roof Kenneth Posner, Wicked JOHN GASSNER AWARD (Presented for an American play, preferably by a new playwright) Nilo Cruz, Anna in the Tropics Tracy Letts, Bug *Lynn Nottage, Intimate Apparel Tristine Skyler, The Moonlight Room SPECIAL ACHIEVEMENT AWARD Outstanding Ensemble Performance and Puppet Artistry Avenue Q Total Awards by Show: Wicked - 4 Wonderful Town - 3 Assassins - 2 Henry IV - 2 I Am My Own Wife - 2 Intimate Apparel - 2 A Raisin in the Sun - 1 Cat on a Hot Tin Roof - 1 Fiddler on the Roof - 1 Johnny Guitar - 1 Match - 1 Never Gonna Dance - 1 The Boy From Oz - 1 The Retreat from Moscow - 1 The Thing About Men - 1 Last season, awards in six categories were presented prior to the actual broadcast. Those categories included Best Orchestrations, Best Design (Scenic, Costume and Lighting) as well as the Special Tony Awards for Regional Theatre and Lifetime Achievement in the Theatre. this year affords some genuine excitement, (for the revival of The King and I and for the performance-of-a-lifetime role in Sondheim and Lapine's Passion)